{"data":{"id":"a2e14c05-1fc3-40cb-b5e4-e9bdfea1b56c","type":"article","translation_group_id":"a2e14c05-18d0-444c-8682-e5d90e092ea0","language":"en","content_type":"market_update","title":"CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP forecast to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6%","dek":"CBUAE\u2019s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review projects overall real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, revising the June path.","slug":"cbuae-qer-sep-2026-gdp-outlook","published_at":"2026-10-01T02:25:53+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-01T20:10:26+00:00","primary_category":{"id":"5","type":"category","key":"banking","name":"Banking & Finance","slug":"banking-finance","summary":"Banks, finance companies, insurers, sukuk, and monetary-policy-linked financial news.","seo_title":"Banking & Finance | Capital Wire","meta_description":"Banks, finance companies, insurers, sukuk issuances, and monetary-policy-linked financial news across UAE and broader GCC markets."},"featured_media":{"id":"a2e14dba-5d16-4a77-aa1f-0ad6e5e5b654","type":"media","url":"https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0.webp","mime":"image\/webp","srcset":"https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0-640.webp 640w, https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0.webp 1200w","width":1200,"height":630,"alt":"CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP forecast to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6%","caption":"CBUAE QER September 2026 GDP outlook","credit":"Capital Wire","license":"operator-supplied","ai_generated":false},"entities":[{"id":"a2d6b339-2365-4b6a-b24d-1f0982d281e3","type":"entity","entity_type":"company","collection":"companies","name":"Central Bank of the UAE","slug":"central-bank-of-the-uae","ticker":null,"is_primary":true},{"id":"a2de49f4-7481-4e6c-86f3-ad83fecfdf12","type":"entity","entity_type":"country","collection":"countries","name":"United Arab Emirates","slug":"uae","ticker":null,"is_primary":false}],"flags":{"breaking":false,"featured":false,"correction":false},"subtitle":null,"executive_summary":"The Central Bank of the UAE\u2019s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review projects overall real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027. That revises the June 2026 path by \u22120.1 percentage point for 2026 and +0.6 percentage points for 2027, with hydrocarbon GDP forecast to surge 26.8% in 2027 toward 5 million barrels per day.","key_points":["According to the CBUAE September 2026 QER, overall real GDP growth is forecast at 1.6% for 2026, trimmed 0.1 percentage point from the June 2026 outlook of 1.7%.","The same CBUAE September 2026 QER lifts the 2027 overall GDP forecast to 10.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the June path of 9.8%.","CBUAE projects hydrocarbon GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 26.8% in 2027, tied to production normalisation to 5 million barrels per day.","Non-hydrocarbon GDP is projected at 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027 in the CBUAE September 2026 QER.","UAE inflation is forecast at 2.4% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 according to the CBUAE September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review.","Q1 2026 real GDP rose 3.0% year-on-year, with non-oil GDP up 4.8% and hydrocarbon GDP down 3.5%, according to the CBUAE QER."],"body":[{"type":"paragraph","text":"According to the Central Bank of the UAE\u2019s Quarterly Economic Review for September 2026 (data cut-off 11 August 2026), the bank has reset its medium-term real GDP path: overall growth is projected at 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"## What happened"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"In Table 2.2 of the September QER, overall real GDP growth is forecast at **1.6%** for 2026 and **10.4%** for 2027. Versus the June 2026 QER, that is a **0.1 percentage-point** trim to the 2026 outlook (from 1.7%) and a **0.6 percentage-point** lift to 2027 (from 9.8%)."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Hydrocarbon GDP is projected at **2.4%** in 2026 and **26.8%** in 2027, the latter tied to production normalisation to **5 million barrels per day**. Non-hydrocarbon GDP is projected at **1.3%** in 2026 and **4.9%** in 2027. UAE inflation is forecast at **2.4%** in 2026 and **1.9%** in 2027."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"On the near-term print, Q1 2026 real GDP rose **3.0%** year-on-year, with non-oil GDP up **4.8%** and hydrocarbon GDP down **3.5%**, reflecting a temporary March production dip, according to the CBUAE QER."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"## Why it matters"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The September QER is an official central-bank forecast revision, not a private-sector estimate. The 2026 slowdown alongside a sharp 2027 rebound driven by hydrocarbon normalisation to 5 mbd resets the official medium-term growth path that banks, corporates, and fiscal planners use for UAE exposure."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The review cites supportive measures including the CBUAE Financial Resilience Package, Dubai\u2019s AED 2.5 billion support initiative, and infrastructure-related public expenditure as factors expected to support activity over the forecast horizon."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"## Who is exposed"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"UAE equities, banks, and oil-linked names are the clearest channels for a reset in official GDP and hydrocarbon-output assumptions. Non-oil growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027 also frames the path for domestic credit, construction, and services demand cited in the QER\u2019s near-term narrative."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"## What to watch next"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Subsequent CBUAE Quarterly Economic Reviews for further revisions to the 2026\u20132027 path; oil-production prints versus the 5 mbd 2027 assumption; and inflation outcomes versus the 2.4% \/ 1.9% forecasts."}],"seo":{"seo_title":"CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6% | Capital Wire","meta_description":"CBUAE\u2019s September 2026 QER trims 2026 GDP growth to 1.6% from 1.7% and lifts 2027 to 10.4% from 9.8%, with hydrocarbon GDP up 26.8% toward 5 mbd.","og_title":"CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6% | Capital Wire","og_description":"CBUAE\u2019s September 2026 QER trims 2026 GDP growth to 1.6% from 1.7% and lifts 2027 to 10.4% from 9.8%, with hydrocarbon GDP up 26.8% toward 5 mbd.","social_image":{"id":"a2e14dba-5d16-4a77-aa1f-0ad6e5e5b654","type":"media","url":"https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0.webp","mime":"image\/webp","srcset":"https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0-640.webp 640w, https:\/\/capital-wire.com\/storage\/media\/17322298de0d01dbce89d9866861fc8170333b414a438c23beea43acf42562c0.webp 1200w","width":1200,"height":630,"alt":"CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP forecast to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6%","caption":"CBUAE QER September 2026 GDP outlook","credit":"Capital Wire","license":"operator-supplied","ai_generated":false}},"secondary_category":null,"topics":[{"id":"7","type":"topic","key":"monetary-policy","name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","summary":"Central-bank rates, Fed and CBUAE signals, and monetary-policy moves affecting GCC markets.","seo_title":"Monetary Policy | Capital Wire","meta_description":"Central-bank rates, Federal Reserve and CBUAE signals, and monetary-policy moves affecting liquidity and markets across the GCC."}],"tags":[],"gallery":[],"charts":[],"byline":{"mode":"desk","schema_type":"Organization","name":"Capital Wire","author":null},"citations":[{"id":"a2e14c05-2598-4fc0-ab18-1ce4c55a43d3","url":"https:\/\/centralbank.ae\/media\/stzjwyce\/qer_sep_2026.pdf","publisher":"centralbank.ae","title":"CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review, September 2026","source_published_at":null,"claim":null},{"id":"a2e14c05-26c6-4e4d-b53d-11c911372e09","url":"https:\/\/centralbank.ae\/media\/ge5opjeq\/qer_june_2026.pdf","publisher":"centralbank.ae","title":"CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review, June 2026 (prior forecast)","source_published_at":null,"claim":null},{"id":"a2e14c05-26ef-4658-83d4-be45fc958db8","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/10\/01\/cbuae-brings-down-gdp-growth-outlook-to-1-6\/","publisher":"enterpriseam.com","title":"EnterpriseAM wire corroboration","source_published_at":null,"claim":null},{"id":"a2e14c05-2710-40c9-812c-8fee5c4b0c41","url":"https:\/\/www.khaleejtimes.com\/business\/uae-central-bank-raises-2027-gdp-growth-forecast-to-104","publisher":"www.khaleejtimes.com","title":"Khaleej Times wire corroboration","source_published_at":null,"claim":null}],"sources":[{"url":"https:\/\/centralbank.ae\/media\/stzjwyce\/qer_sep_2026.pdf","source_id":null,"label":"CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review, September 2026","publisher":"centralbank.ae"},{"url":"https:\/\/centralbank.ae\/media\/ge5opjeq\/qer_june_2026.pdf","source_id":null,"label":"CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review, June 2026 (prior forecast)","publisher":"centralbank.ae"},{"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/10\/01\/cbuae-brings-down-gdp-growth-outlook-to-1-6\/","source_id":null,"label":"EnterpriseAM wire corroboration","publisher":"enterpriseam.com"},{"url":"https:\/\/www.khaleejtimes.com\/business\/uae-central-bank-raises-2027-gdp-growth-forecast-to-104","source_id":null,"label":"Khaleej Times wire corroboration","publisher":"www.khaleejtimes.com"}],"corrections":[],"translations":[{"language":"ar","slug":"cbuae-qer-sep-2026-gdp-outlook","published_at":"2026-10-01T02:25:53+00:00","is_current":false},{"language":"en","slug":"cbuae-qer-sep-2026-gdp-outlook","published_at":"2026-10-01T02:25:53+00:00","is_current":true}],"schema_type":"NewsArticle"},"meta":{"request_id":"9e0d0d45-e910-4cb5-86f1-40eb80f0c7f0","locale":"en"},"errors":[]}