CBUAE lifts 2027 GDP forecast to 10.4%, trims 2026 to 1.6%

CBUAE’s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review projects overall real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, revising the June path.

1 October 2026

The Central Bank of the UAE’s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review projects overall real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027. That revises the June 2026 path by −0.1 percentage point for 2026 and +0.6 percentage points for 2027, with hydrocarbon GDP forecast to surge 26.8% in 2027 toward 5 million barrels per day.

• According to the CBUAE September 2026 QER, overall real GDP growth is forecast at 1.6% for 2026, trimmed 0.1 percentage point from the June 2026 outlook of 1.7%.
• The same CBUAE September 2026 QER lifts the 2027 overall GDP forecast to 10.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the June path of 9.8%.
• CBUAE projects hydrocarbon GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 26.8% in 2027, tied to production normalisation to 5 million barrels per day.
• Non-hydrocarbon GDP is projected at 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027 in the CBUAE September 2026 QER.
• UAE inflation is forecast at 2.4% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 according to the CBUAE September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review.
• Q1 2026 real GDP rose 3.0% year-on-year, with non-oil GDP up 4.8% and hydrocarbon GDP down 3.5%, according to the CBUAE QER.

According to the Central Bank of the UAE’s Quarterly Economic Review for September 2026 (data cut-off 11 August 2026), the bank has reset its medium-term real GDP path: overall growth is projected at 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027.

## What happened

In Table 2.2 of the September QER, overall real GDP growth is forecast at **1.6%** for 2026 and **10.4%** for 2027. Versus the June 2026 QER, that is a **0.1 percentage-point** trim to the 2026 outlook (from 1.7%) and a **0.6 percentage-point** lift to 2027 (from 9.8%).

Hydrocarbon GDP is projected at **2.4%** in 2026 and **26.8%** in 2027, the latter tied to production normalisation to **5 million barrels per day**. Non-hydrocarbon GDP is projected at **1.3%** in 2026 and **4.9%** in 2027. UAE inflation is forecast at **2.4%** in 2026 and **1.9%** in 2027.

On the near-term print, Q1 2026 real GDP rose **3.0%** year-on-year, with non-oil GDP up **4.8%** and hydrocarbon GDP down **3.5%**, reflecting a temporary March production dip, according to the CBUAE QER.

## Why it matters

The September QER is an official central-bank forecast revision, not a private-sector estimate. The 2026 slowdown alongside a sharp 2027 rebound driven by hydrocarbon normalisation to 5 mbd resets the official medium-term growth path that banks, corporates, and fiscal planners use for UAE exposure.

The review cites supportive measures including the CBUAE Financial Resilience Package, Dubai’s AED 2.5 billion support initiative, and infrastructure-related public expenditure as factors expected to support activity over the forecast horizon.

## Who is exposed

UAE equities, banks, and oil-linked names are the clearest channels for a reset in official GDP and hydrocarbon-output assumptions. Non-oil growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027 also frames the path for domestic credit, construction, and services demand cited in the QER’s near-term narrative.

## What to watch next

Subsequent CBUAE Quarterly Economic Reviews for further revisions to the 2026–2027 path; oil-production prints versus the 5 mbd 2027 assumption; and inflation outcomes versus the 2.4% / 1.9% forecasts.